University System of Georgia (USG) – Invent the Beyond
Future of Learning Uncertainties
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Appendix 1
This document identifies 30 critically important yet uncertain future of learning and higher education.  Some of these issues pertain specifically to higher education, while others are more global in scope. However, all of these uncertainties are expected to impact the future of learning. This list is arranged according to five categories—economic, social, technological, political, and workforce—and includes a brief descriptive question for each.  The question is bounded by two poles, suggesting the breadth of possible outcomes.
The driving forces discussed in this document are drawn from the responses of the New Models 2030 Task Force to the first survey on Driving Forces and Uncertainties in the Future of Learning.
Except where otherwise noted, content on this page is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Future of Learning Uncertainties
| Uncertainty | Description | Poles |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of Education | Will education be viewed as an important but ultimately overfunded effort that is reduced to balance budgets, or will education be viewed as a strategic capability that funded and managed to support workforce and economic development? | Out of Control/Managed and Accessible |
| Credentials and Certification | Will traditional degrees continue to dominate the requirements for most types of employment, or will employers become more satisfied with experience-based credentials, such as portfolios, as proof of professional and vocational competency? | Degrees and Diplomas/Portfolios and Experience |
| Curriculum Design and Standards | Will the curriculum be standardized, designed for the lowest common denominator student and repeated regularly, or will it be highly personalized and regularly refreshed to meet current needs and context? | Standardized/Personalized |
| Curriculum Development | Will curriculum development be driven by instructors and individual experiences, or will it be developed collaboratively by an open learning community where learners share the development of the curriculum and instructional materials? | Instructor Lead/Co-Created |
| Demographic Shifts | As demographic shifts continue, will traditional students continue to be the main focus of postsecondary education, or will there be an increasing need for workforce retraining at both the general and specific vocational level for non-traditional students? | Traditional students/Non-Traditional students |
| Economic Policymaking | In the future, will the role of government in the economy be pro-growth, emphasizing open markets and limited regulation, or will government be redistributive, acknowledging the limits of markets and potential for abuse? | Pro-Growth/ Redistributive |
| Economic Pragmatism | Will education be viewed as an important but ultimately overfunded effort that is reduced to balance budgets, or will education be viewed as a strategic capability that is funded and managed to support workforce and economic development? | Pragmatic/ Ideological |
| Enrollment Models | Will postsecondary education continue to be dominated by the full-time student model, or will it adapt to greater numbers of part-time learners with full-time work and commitments? | Full-Time/Part-Time |
| Environment for Learning | Will learning take place in buildings, or will it be available anywhere, anytime, eliminating the need for additional physical locations? What impact will the virtualization of learning have on facilities and physical environments? | Buildings/Virtual |
| Funding Sources for Education | What will be the role of funding agencies in the future of education? Will states expect colleges and universities to adhere to stringent controls they may not follow themselves, or will funding bodies, from states and government agencies to large foundations, help lead the way to a disciplined financial future? | Opaque/Disciplined |
| Globalized Workforces | Will organizations continue to chase the economic advantages associated with global workforces, including lower-wage workers and relaxed regulatory environments, or will they repatriate their operations to focus on local markets through local resources? | Global/Repatriated |
| Innovation | Will innovation be incremental and closed, building largely on past successes, or will innovation be disruptive and open, leading to a wide range of technological and societal shifts? | Rapid and Disruptive/Slow and Managed |
| Institutional Roles | Will postsecondary education continue to involve systems of institutions with distinct missions, ranging from research universities to access colleges, or will institutions and their missions become increasingly integrated? | Integrated/Differentiated |
| Knowledge Economy | Will the regulation of public learning increase, leading to tensions between policymakers, educators, administrators and learners, or will a lack of funding reduce control and regulations, perhaps empowering institutions to develop their own partnerships, policies and forms of governance? | Traditional Models of Growth/Innovative Expansion |
| Learning Experience | Will the learning experience focus on in-person lectures, classroom activities, and homework, or will it be more technology-driven, with multimedia and student choice about participation? | Lecture-Classroom/Multimedia and Technology-Driven |
| Learning Motivation | Will learning be motivated by outside interests such as the state of business, or will it be driven by personal concerns such as individuals seeking to discover themselves and gain fulfillment? | Personal/External |
| Measurement Approaches | Will student success be determined through standardized testing, or will it be determined through holistic, knowledge-based, closed-loop processes? Will measurement take into account individual student interests, aptitudes, learning environments, teaching approaches and other aspects of the learning experience? | Standardized Testing/Individualized Assessment |
| National Focus | In the future, will the role of government in the economy be pro-growth, emphasizing open markets and limited regulation, or will the government be redistributive, acknowledging the limits of markets and potential for abuse? | Strategic/Subsistent |
| Necessity of Education | Will education be a luxury item, or will education offer multiple tiers that make it necessary yet affordable to all? Will tiers be perceived as economically differentiated, with more expensive schools offering “better” education and preparation than more affordable schools? | Luxury Item/ Necessary Good |
| Ownership and Control of Technology | Will institution-owned technology, whether in libraries/labs or allocated/assigned, remain the primary means of delivering content and communication, or will personal technology become the primary means of delivering courses and connecting people? | Bring Your Own Device/Institution Hardware |
| Pace of Change | Will the overall pace of change be fast, chaotic, and unmanageable, or will change happen in measured doses, slow and controlled over predictable periods of time? | Rapid/Managed |
| Paths for Learning | Will learning be a linear, planned, “gated” experience, or will it be consciously approached as non-linear with “just-in-time” learning and flexible approaches? | Linear & Gated/“Just-in-Time” & Open-Ended |
| Pedagogical Styles | Will pedagogy be based on instructors’ personal style and experience, or will it be the result of participative co-creation with learners to meet collective and individual learning expectations? | Instructor/Participative |
| Predictive Analytics | Will predictive analytics drive overpowering, if insightful, changes in pedagogy and classroom experience, or will analytics become just one of many tools to create informed learning experiences and empowering environments? | Overpowering/Empowering |
| Public Education Funding Models | Will public institutions of higher education remain tied to allocations, grants, and other forms of traditional income, or will they become increasingly entrepreneurial, private, and competitive, seeking funding from a variety of sources? | Public Funding/Diverse Funding |
| Rapid Change and Skills Development | Will change happen so rapidly that it will become too expensive to develop skills for new technologies, or will distributed, “just-in-time” methods of learning provide a new way to rapidly develop skills? | Outdated Skills/“Just-in-Time” Skills |
| Regulation of Public Learning Institutions | Will the US remain the recognized economic leader with a clear strategy and solid execution, or will the US become defensive and retreat as it struggles to reinvent itself? | Highly Regulated/Lazie Faire |
| Social Networking and Collaborative Computing | Will social networking and other collaborative technologies be deployed within existing educational institutions to create focused yet isolated enclaves of learning, or will these technologies result in open, inclusive environments where the world is invited into all learning experiences? | Internal/External |
| Sources of Learning | Will institutions of higher learning—“the academy”—remain the primary source of learning, or will open learning and communal, networked experiences become the new norm? | Open/Closed |
| US Competitive Position | Will the curriculum be standardized, designed for the lowest common denominator student and repeated regularly, or will it be highly personalized regularly refreshed to meet current needs and context? | US Leading/US Waning |
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